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Many economists have called on China to boost its social safety net to rebalance the economy. Yao was unswayed and would prefer consumer vouchers, which some local governments in China have issued, but in amounts too small to matter at a macro level. Local governments, while cash poor, are asset rich. Michael Pettis, senior fellow at Carnegie China, estimates that if Beijing forces local governments to transfer 1-1.5% of GDP to households, China could maintain current growth. "One of the really big conflicts is likely to be between Beijing and the local governments over how to allocate the various adjustment costs.
Persons: Erin Yao, Juan Orts, Orts, Tokyo's, Yao, joblessness, Jens Eskelund, Wang Jiliu, Wang, Michael Pettis, Laurie Chen, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Sam Holmes Organizations: Fathom Consulting, Communist Party, Reuters Graphics, European Chamber of Commerce, Carnegie China, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, HONG KONG, China, Beijing, United States, Hainan
[1/5] A worker sweeps a street in the Central Business District on a rainy day in Beijing, China, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas PeterBEIJING, July 18 (Reuters) - China is entering an era of much slower economic growth, raising a daunting prospect: it may never get rich. He expects growth to slow to 3%, which "will feel like an economic recession" when youth unemployment is already above 20%. The April-June data puts 2023 growth on track for roughly 5%, with slower rates thereafter. But China's annual growth averaged around 7% last decade, and more than 10% in the 2000s.
Persons: Thomas Peter BEIJING, Desmond Lachman, year's, Wang Jun, Zheng Shanjie, Zheng, Richard Koo, Juan Orts, Xi Jinping's, Zhao, Cai Fang, Zhu Ning, Koo, Liangping Gao, Ellen Zhang, Ziyi Tang, Kevin Yao, Joe Cash, Marius Zaharia, David Crawshaw Organizations: Central Business District, REUTERS, American Enterprise Institute, Reuters, Communist, Huatai Asset Management, Reform Commission, Overseas, Nomura Research Institute, Fathom Consulting, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Japan, United States, Young, Africa, Latin, U.S, Central
Just where that notional 'R-star' lies has been clouded by the wild supply-side distortions of the COVID-19 pandemic and last year's energy shock. Raising R-star from recent low levels would probably increase uncertainty in markets about its longer-term level and direction too. On the other hand, if R-star is closer to zero, as Williams has suggested should be the case, current policy is too tight. Indeed, R-star is set to fall "slightly below zero," the New York Fed chief said, without giving a time frame. This suggests that the U.S. central bank's current policy rate target range of 5.00%-5.25% is already highly restrictive, and will soon need to come down.
LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The two investment obsessions of the year so far - artificial intelligence and super-tight labour markets - meet head on. Far from relaxing, should office or home-based workers now fret that we're in for anything but a tight jobs market over the coming years? Morgan Stanley's thematic research team said this week it was inundated with enquiries about generative AI during its recent client visits. Much like the pandemic, fear of automation could have as big an economic impact as its actual spread. US jobs growth by sectorMcKinsey chart on automation worldwideFathom chart on US vs China AIThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
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